老鼠的化妆舞会

RE: 易周：为传销正名
CND论坛似乎为祖国GFW所阻，故转在这里。

楼主问：

能否赚钱取决于进场早晚，请问对传销有研究的各位，怎么知道自己是在塔顶，塔中还是塔地？如果是前两者，至少还可以当作副业赚些外快；如果是垫底的就吃力不讨好了。

还有，塔顶人赚的一定就是塔底人陪的钱吗？也可以是那些只消费，不入会的人的钱啊？

USANA的人说他们的账号是全球通，一个金字塔到底了还可以返到下家下面重新建一个金字塔，子子孙孙，无穷尽焉。。。。。。似乎前景非常壮丽哦。

谢谢各位赐教。

下面是精彩的部分回复，黑字为原文，红字为MLM观察所做潦草翻译。

Virginio：

Getting started early in a MLM business is but NOT a necessary and condition, and it is even NOT an important condition.
做传销早进场不是必要的条件，而且甚至根本都不重要。

You do need at least the average intelligence, but the essential condition is that you have a great charismatic personality like that of a big-time politician.
除了及格的智商以外，关键的条件是你要有像大牌政治家那样超凡的个人魅力。

This basically means
也就是说

(1) You are a great expert at making "friends", not necessarily for friendship, but for the purpose of politics and/or business;
你在交朋友方面是能手，可以交朋友不为友谊，而是为了政治、做买卖的目的。

(2) You are capable of lying under broad daylight without the slightest sense of guilt;
你能够大白天睁眼说瞎话没有一丝的内疚。

(3) You are an expert demagogue, or an orator that appeals to the passions and frenzies of a large audience that has more faith than reason on a matter. In other words, you can rally tens of thousands of people in a stadium to the state of total insanity;
你还是一个蛊惑煽动专家，一个能让缺乏理性的听众激动和狂热的演说家。也就是说，你能够把体育馆里上万人鼓动到疯狂的状态。

(4) You have the least moral concern for other people. In other words, you do not blink your eyes even once AFTER you have caused thousands of your relatives, friends, neighbors and other people each to lose a great hard-earned fortune;
你基本不会因为考虑别人而良心上有所顾忌。也就是说在当上千的亲人、朋友、邻居、或其他人因为你而蒙受损失以后，你可以做到眼睛都不眨一下。

(5) You have the fortitude to repeat (1), (2), (3) and (4) for many years;
你有毅力可以坚忍不拔的重复上面四点，年复一年。

(6) Your prominence in (1), (2), (3), (4) and (5) must all be at least on the order of 1 out of 100,000 people.
以上5点，每样你都必须是万里挑一最优秀的。

If you do not have ALL the above, you should not even think about MLM.
如果达不到上面的要求，还是不要考虑传销了。

The final decision is always yours, though.
不过最后的决定权还是在你自己手里。

Good luck!
祝好运气。

ypyao：

1. Again, here is an old thread that talked about MLM (传销) in general, and USANA in particular:
讨论传销（USANA）的帖子

http://my.cnd.org/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?topic_id=36309&forum=1

And here are a couple of more old threads in this topic:
其他旧帖子

http://my.cnd.org/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?topic_id=33871&forum=1&14
http://my.cnd.org/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?topic_id=41712&forum=1&12

2. The facts in that article (易周：为传销正名) are not necessary true, at least in the US. See those previous discussions.
[易周：为传销正名]文中所例并不全是事实，至少在美国，见前面的讨论。

3. Here are some more facts to think about: USANA had annual sales of 272.8 million US dollars (2004), mainly through MLM; but GNC had annual sales of 1.344 billion US dollars (2004), through normal retail stores. About USANA stock: it was around 35 on January 1, 2005, closed at 38.36 on December 30, 2005; revenue growth rate – 0.2%, industry leader – 1.42 %; long term growth rate (5 year) – 17.8 %, industry leader – 30 %; and etc.
一些值得思考的事实：2004年USANA年销售额为2.728亿美元，主要通过传销途径获得；但是GNC的2004年通过传统零售商店获得销售额为13.44亿美元。关于USANA的股票：2005年一月一号它的股价大约是35，十二月三十号收盘价为38.36；收入增长率 0.2%，行业领袖企业则达到 1.42%；5年长线增长率 17.8%，行业领袖企业则达到30%；等等。「MLM观察注：今天2006-04-18的数据 USANA 2005年收益3.2774亿；GNC 2005年收益为13.2亿；USANA现在股价为40.69」

4. Think about this: if somebody has some breakthrough health products, especially in this extremely health conscious country (the US), would that be a big news all over?
想想看，如果谁拥有了突破性的保健产品，特别是在美国这个大众对健康极为关注的国家，那肯定会成为尽人皆知的大新闻。

5. After all these and previous posts that still cannot convince you one way or the other, then why don't you just try it, and later on, after your trying, you can come here, and tell us you've made your millions, and at the same time, their products make you healthier, younger, etc., so that we can all try?
如果以上的还没有说服力，你尽可以去试试看，等你尝试完了，你可以再来告诉我们你赚到了百万美金，同时它们的产品也让你更健康、更年轻了等等，然后我们就都可以去做了~

Virginio：

You need to look at things STATISTICALLY, and evaluate your chance to succeed accordingly. This is very important. If you focus on a single case, why don't you focus on the single lotto winner who won $100,000,000. Or focus on the guy who is the president of the US. You can have the slogan: "If he can be the president, I can be too!"
你需要的是用统计的角度来分析，才知道成功的机会有多大。这很关键，如果你只去看个例，你为什么不去看那个赢了一亿美元的乐透彩票买主呢。或者去看那个当上了美国总统的家伙，你可以自己创造一个口号鼓励自己：“如果那家伙能当总统，我也能！”

A pious Christian can HONESTLY and SINCERELY tell you that there really is a God, and you should believe it. But honesty and sincerity do not guarantee what he says is true at all.
一个虔诚的基督徒可以老老实实的，真诚的告诉你上帝是存在的，而你应该相信这个。但是，老实和真诚并不能保证他所说的就是事实。

The author, Ren Feng, has more or less made it clear in his article. MLM does not work for the average guy.
文章的作者任锋，多少在他的文章里已经明确指出：传销不是适合每一个人的。

Regardless of the quality and price, you cannot make it a long-term steady business---if you are the average person. Even if the product is of super quality and its price super low, it does not work. The reason is that all potential people will soon be in the network and no more people to recruit. And then those at the bottom will quit one after another. There is no such a thing that those at the bottom will loyally support those at the top.
不管产品的质量和价格如何，你不可能把它做成一个长期的稳定事业——如果你是一个普通人。即使产品有极高的品质和极低的价格，那也没用。原因是所有可以发展的人会很快都加入网络，再没有人可以发展。那时候在系统底层的人就会一个接一个的退出。让低层的人忠诚的支撑上层的人是不可能的。

All MLM companies cook up demonstrations of their products to show their unique quality and price. The truth is that products are really irrelevant and they only serve as a pretence.
所有的传销公司都会精心的演示他们产品独特的品质和价格。事实是，产品如何其实是没有关系的，它们只不过是被用来虚装门面。

Brainwashing is usually done in this way: You are manipulated to believe that something is good while it is actually bad.
通常洗脑是这样的：你被操纵的相信某种东西是好的，而实际上它是坏的。

So look at it STATISTICALLY! Why don't you devote all your time and money on lotto? Because you look at it statistically.
所以用统计学的角度来分析吧。你为什么不把你所有的时间和金钱都投到乐透彩票上去呢？因为你用统计学的角度分析它了。

ypyao：

Well, I'm not expert on MLM. Although I had a few encounters and experience with MLM, it's just common sense, common logic, and common thinking.
我不是传销方面的专家。虽然我有一些和传销接触的遭遇和经历。这些不过是常识、寻常的逻辑和普通的思考。

Here I want to add a few more things:
我想补充几点

1. The USANA has a 52 week stock price range of $32.60 - $54.10. So, at thirty something, they are not even at their 52 week high. Today, their stock closed at $37.83, down 1.38%.
USANA的52周股价范围是$32.60 - $54.10。所以，在三十几块，他们甚至都没有达到他们的52周峰值。今天，他们收盘在$37.83，跌了1.38%。「MLM观察注：今天2006-04-18的数据 USANA 的52周股价范围：$37.3 - $54.1；USANA现在股价为40.69; +0.32/0.79%」

2. Back to Mary Kay example, in my previous post in the other thread, I pointed out that, there are 200 Mary Kay Direct Sales Representatives who has career earnings over 1 million dollars, among 1.3 million DSR's (from their annual report). That one million dollars could be earned at $50,000 a year for 20 years, or $100,000 a year for 10 years, and etc. But 200 among 1.3 million, that means, only one in 6,500 can make life earnings over 1 million dollars. Think about this, if you think you can do something better than 6,500 of your peers, then you most likely will be successful in something else, even better than MLM selling. You can probably do something else to earn over 1 million dollars in less time.
回到美琳凯的例子。我在其他帖子里指出过，在一百三十万个美琳凯直销代表中，有200个获得超过百万美元的终身收入（根据他们的年报）。那一百万美元可以分二十年每年领5万，或者分十年每年领10万，等等。但是一百三十万里出200个，换言之，6500个人里面只有一个能获得超过百万的终身收入。想想看，如果做一件事你可以比6499个同事做的更出色，那么你基本上在其他行业也会获得成功，甚至比做直销更成功。而做其他行业，你很可能在更短的时间里面赚到百万美元。

3. Most of us here are constantly looking for new opportunities, new business, new ways of making money, and etc., but one thing I'm very sure of is this, if I missed MLM, I will not miss anything, any new thing.
我们中很多人来这里一直在寻找新的机遇，新的事业，新的赚钱方法，等等。但是我确信的是，如果我错过了传销，我不会错过任何东西，任何新东西。

4. MLM is not new at all. It's been around for several decades. If you look all those MLM's, and compare them with other means of marketing and retailing, MLM is not a very successful marketing and retailing model. I already gave an example in my previous post in the other thread.
传销根本不是什么新东西，已经有几十年的历史。如果你把这些传销企业和使用其他手段营销的企业作比较，传销不是一个很成功的营销模式。我在其他帖子里举过例子。

5. In the US, there is anti pyramid scheme laws. And MLM is often operating at the border line. It is basically a pyramid scheme with some product selling twist in it. That's why some MLM companies try to shack off this. For example, Mary Kay only allows two levels of down lines. This way, it wants you to think it is not an MLM, rather a health consulting company. That's also why they call their DSR's Beauty Consultants. But no matter how you slice it or spin it, the truce of the matter is that MLM will not make ordinary Joe's and Jane's rich or even a career, like they want to you to believe.
在美国，有反金字塔模式法案。而传销经常是运作在法律的边缘。它本质上是金字塔模式加上一些产品销售的幌子。这就是为什么一些传销公司要做的不像传销。比如，美琳凯只允许两层下线。这样，它让你相信它不是一个传销，而是一个健康咨询公司。这也是为什么他们称他们的直销代表为美容顾问。但是不管你如何做手脚，事实的真相是传销不会带给每个普通人富有或是一个终身的事业，就像他们希望你相信的那样。

PeacefulMind

Totally agree.

老鼠会就是老鼠会， 再怎么化装最多也就是个老鼠的化装舞会。

Technorati Tags: 转贴, MLM, AntiMLM, USANA, Mary Kay, CND, 传销, 老鼠会